Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
